Loss first
Start with the amount you can lose without changing your plan.
Loss budget tool
Calculate position size from the loss you can accept
Estimate a maximum position using portfolio size, loss budget, and thesis-invalidation distance. The result is a cap, not a target allocation.
If you cannot define an invalidation point or execute an exit with available liquidity, the calculator cannot make the position safe.
Thesis based
Use a meaningful invalidation level, not an arbitrary tight stop.
Lower wins
Respect portfolio, liquidity, and exchange limits in addition to the formula.
Interactive workbench
Run the decision step
Your inputs stay in this browser session and are not a recommendation or return forecast.
Risk budget divided by invalidation distance
The calculator divides the maximum acceptable currency loss by the percentage distance to the point where the thesis is invalid.
- Risk budget = portfolio × loss percentage
- Position cap = risk budget ÷ invalidation percentage
- Use the lower of formula and allocation cap
Slippage and gaps can exceed the estimate
Crypto markets can move through stop levels. Fees, spreads, liquidity, venue outages, and custody delays can increase realized loss.
- Add a friction buffer
- Check order-book depth
- Avoid relying on one venue
No invalidation means no calculated position
If the only thesis is that price may rise, there is no defensible invalidation distance. Return to due diligence instead of forcing a number.
- Write the thesis
- Name the breaker
- Confirm the exit route