Testable
Name observable conditions that support or break the idea.
Pre-commitment tool
Write the exit decision before price makes it emotional
Define thesis breakers, review dates, maximum loss, liquidity requirements, custody timing, and execution steps before entry.
A price target alone is not an exit plan. The plan must explain what changes the thesis and how an exit can actually be executed.
Scheduled
Reassess on time and after material events.
Practical
Account for venue, liquidity, custody, fees, and records.
Interactive workbench
Run the decision step
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Exit when the reason for owning changes
Thesis breakers can include lost product relevance, deteriorating security, failed value capture, unacceptable concentration, or disappearing liquidity.
- Fundamental breaker
- Security or governance breaker
- Liquidity breaker
Use dates and events, not constant price watching
Schedule regular reviews and event-driven checks. Define which source changes require immediate action.
- Next review date
- Material-event triggers
- Source refresh list
Plan the route from custody to cash
An exit may require unbonding, bridging, exchange access, order splitting, tax records, or a fallback venue.
- Time to liquidity
- Primary and fallback venues
- Fee and slippage allowance